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      {
        "id":"0dc3c166fe725b4bf05f48653d7c9c76d15e68a9",
        "name_s":"Prediction of long-term kinetics of vaccine- elicited neutralizing antibody and time- varying vaccine-specific efficacy against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant by clinical endpoint",
        "url_s":"https://api.semanticscholar.org/v1/paper/0dc3c166fe725b4bf05f48653d7c9c76d15e68a9",
        "abstract_t":"Background: Evidence on vaccine-specific protection over time, in particular against the Delta variant, and protection afforded by a homologous third dose is urgently needed. Methods: We used a previously published model and neutralization data for five vaccines-mRNA-1273, BNT162b2, NVX-CoV2373, V01, and CoronaVac-to evaluate long-term neutralizing antibody dynamics and predict timevarying efficacy against the Delta variant by specific vaccine, age group, and clinical severity. Results: We found that homologous third-dose vaccination produces higher neutralization titers compared with titers observed following primary-series vaccination for all vaccines studied. We estimate the efficacy of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 against Delta variant infection to be 63.5% (95% CI: 51.4-67.3%) and 78.4% (95% CI: 72.2-83.5%), respectively, 14-30 days after the second dose, and that efficacy decreases to 36.0% (95% CI: 24.1-58.0%) and 38.5% (95% CI: 28.7-49.1%) 6-8 months later. Fourteen to 30 days after administration of homologous third doses, efficacy against the Delta variant would be 97.0% (95% CI: 96.4-98.5%) and 97.2% (95.7-98.1%). All five vaccines are predicted to provide good protection against severe illness from the Delta variant after both primary and homologous third dose vaccination. ",
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